The Hindu - Syrian crisis

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-syrian-fire-that-could-consume-all/article4797899.ece

The simplistic assessment of the crisis being only about a repressive regime needs to change

Under way for over two years, the Syrian civil war has already claimed close to 80,000 lives. In and of itself, this should have been sufficient to stir the conscience of the international community to redouble efforts to persuade the Assad regime and an assortment of rebels armed to the teeth, to walk back from the violence and commence a Syrian-led negotiating process for an acceptable outcome. Unfortunately, maximalist positions of the two sides — President Assad’s exit demanded by the West, Turkey and the Gulf states, and treating the crisis as a security issue by the Assad regime — has prevented any serious attempt at reconciliation.

Geneva 2

Despite agreement between the United States and Russia to convene Geneva 2, some time in the second half of June, the facts on the ground clearly suggest that the initiative is unlikely to succeed. In fact, the actions of the international community’s major stakeholders are continuing to exacerbate the crisis. The simplistic fig leaf that this was a brutal and repressive regime targeting innocent and helpless civilians, demanding their democratic rights as part of the Arab Spring, needs to be shed in favour of more clinical assessments.

Drawing inspiration from the three easy steps for regime change in Libya — a Security Council Resolution, arming of rebels and NATO military action, the rebels, who were armed quite openly by Qatar and covertly by Saudi Arabia and clandestinely by others — the West and Gulf states expected the same in Syria. Given the Libyan experience and strategic interests of Russia, however, the Security Council failed to oblige. Russia and China vetoed three draft resolutions in 2011-12. Unilateral military action by NATO or Coalition of the Willing did not materialise either.

More important still, there are increasing doubts on whether arming the rebels was such a good idea given the proliferation of extremists groups, one of which, the Al-Nusra Front, had to be banned by the U.S. How does one ensure that arms go only to the good rebels? Even the description of “good” is subjective. Turkey and Qatar, it would appear, have no hesitation in supporting rebels drawing inspiration from the Islamic Brotherhood; Saudi Arabia favours Salafist groups. Hopefully, they all agree that al-Qaeda does not qualify for assistance.

With sectarian fault lines within Syria now opened threadbare, the possibility of the present compact that has ruled Syria comprising 12 per cent Alawites, 10 per cent Christians and some Sunni business class continuing to exercise power in any post-Assad dispensation, is a non-starter. Given the brutality of the violence on both sides, the prevailing sentiment among the Sunnis backed by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and sections of the political class in the West not fully educated in the sectarian tensions of the region, is to “send the Alawites to their graves and the Christians to Lebanon.” Clearly, no post-Assad dispensation in Syria will be viable unless effective security guarantees can be provided for the safety of nearly 20 per cent of the population. Who will provide these?

The “top down” model for a negotiated settlement on which Geneva 1 was based last year and on which Geneva 2, if it has to have better luck than Geneva 1, has to be predicated on all parties to the conflict agreeing to participate. That is the easiest part. Agreement can also perhaps be reached that both Saudi Arabia and Iran, given their stake in the civil war, should be invited. Now comes the more difficult part.

Militias

The just concluded battle for Qusayr shows that this is now a full-fledged war in which the Lebanon-based Shiite group, Hezbollah, is openly and fully involved. Any residual doubts were removed when the Hezbollah leader, Nasrullah, explicitly so announced on May 25.

With 12,000 Hezbollah fighters now reportedly fighting along with Assad’s troops and paramilitary militias drawn from his Alawite sect against an assortment of rebels, mostly Sunnis with varying degrees of radicalisation, a negotiated settlement would appear less likely than at any time in the last two years.

For Hezbollah, established to fight Israel, this is clearly a gamble. Apart from fighting the Syrian rebels, they will have to confront pan-Arab sentiment. In the process, tensions between the Shia crescent from Iran, covering Iraq, Syria and the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Gulf states and their western backers can only increase. A desire to weaken the Iran-dominated crescent cannot but open the sectarian fault lines throughout the region.

Hezbollah’s more direct involvement, rather the timing of the announcement coincides with Russia’s decision to supply the Assad regime with more sophisticated weaponries. The Russian decision constitutes, in a sense, an insurance just in case the U.S. is persuaded by the British and the French to consider the imposition of a no-fly zone and aerial action. Israeli strikes in Syria, in turn, want to prevent the sophisticated weapons falling in to the hands of Hezbollah for use against Israel.

The European Union announced on May 27 that it has decided not to renew the embargo on supply of lethal arms to the Syrian rebels.

Internal divisions

The humanitarian tragedy unfolding for Syria’s 22 million people, with close to four million internally displaced and the increasing brutality of the sectarian violence would appear to point towards a prolongation of the civil war. Even the fall of President Assad’s regime is now unlikely to restore peace and security in Syria. Sectarian war will not only continue, but result in the country’s de facto division into three largely autonomous regions dominated by the Alawites, Kurds and Sunnis, the internal boundaries of which will be determined by the prevailing military balance on the ground.

The assessment that while Libya imploded, Syria will explode with unimaginable consequences will prove to be right. The unfolding scenario constitutes the biggest threat to international peace and security in recent times. The continuing paralysis and helplessness of the Security Council constitutes, in a sense, also the most comprehensive statement of its irrelevance.

TOI - Food Security n climate change in Ghana

ACCRA: Nearly 700,000 people in Ghana are staring at hunger as climate change has started taking a toll on food security in this West African nation of 25 million people, a survey shows. The phenomenon, according to an agrcultural expert, will further aggravate the frequency of droughts and storms which will affect food production.

"Severe warming, floods and drought may reduce crop yields. Livestock may be at risk, both directly from heat stress and indirectly from reduced quality of their food supply, while fisheries would be affected by changes in water temperature," Hans Adu-Dapaah, director of the Crop Research Institute (CRI), told IANS.

He said evidence of climate change in Ghana was that the mean annual temperature had increased by one degree celsius since 1960, on an average rate of 0.21 degree Ccelsius per decade.

Adu-Dapaah said total annual rainfall in Ghana has shown a decreasing trend between 1960 and 2006, with an average of 2.3 mm per month per decade, adding that the long term trends were difficult to identify because annual rainfall in Ghana was highly variable on inter-annual and inter-decadal timescales.

Adu-Dapaah said the impact of climate change was increasingly becoming severe and that long-term projections indicated crop yields could fall by up to 50 per cent by 2020 and net revenues from crops could drop by as much as 90 per cent by 2100.

The official suggested the development and promotion of more disease and pest tolerant crop varieties, development of Phosphorous efficient and Nitrogen fixing crop varieties (cowpea, soybean), participatory varietal selection, improved farming systems, crop residue management and mulching.

A comprehensive food security and vulnerability analysis (CFSVA) survey conducted by the World Food Programme (WFP) in the country's three regions in the north showed that more than 680,000 people, representing 16 per cent of all households, are either severely or moderately food insecure.

In addition, the survey conducted last May in the North, Upper West and Upper East Regions showed about 140,000 people were severely food insecure, with the Upper East being the worst affected.

The WFP said 8,399 households were randomly sampled in 38 districts and it was found that 28 percent of the households in the Upper East were food insecure compared to 10 percent in the Northern and 16 per cent in the Upper West regions.

It attributed the food insecurity to poverty, which limited the purchasing power of the people and added: "Climatic events, food prices, the death of a household member and lower education were also responsible for food insecurity."

Based on its findings, the WFP recommended that weather-related shocks should be controlled to stabilize food prices and production to ensure that the maximum households had access to food.

In addition, it also recommended seasonal cash transfers, promotion of food security and nutrition by the government.

"It is vital that a Food and Nutrition Security Commission should be established at the national and regional levels to coordinate activities within this sector," the survey said.

Economist - Pakistan's economic crises

LIKE most Pakistanis Mohammad Hussain complains bitterly about the paltry few hours of electricity available each day during the sweltering summer. Life for the 43-year-old labourer, already pretty miserable in the Lahore slum where he lives, is more unbearable without a fan to cool him at night or a pump to guarantee water.
Like many of his countrymen, he has never paid a rupee towards the cost of the dribble of electricity used by his wife and five children, who all live in a one-bedroom flat. Their building is illegally connected to the city’s power grid by a metal hook attached to a nearby electricity line.

Every now and then officials from the Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) launch a “crackdown”. Officials phone ahead, giving everyone ample opportunity to remove their hooks. They then go door-to-door collecting bribes, organised on a careful tariff basis. Households with just a fan pay $5. For slightly beefier “air coolers” the fee is $10 and for the lucky few who can afford air conditioning the cost is $15. These charges are a fraction of LESCO’s official tariff, but none of the money goes into the coffers of a collapsing electricity system anyway.
Not charging consumers for electricity has created a big problem for Pakistan. At the end of 2012 the country’s stock of energy-industry debt was $9.1 billion— about 4% of GDP—according to a report funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and carried out by the national Planning Commission.
The shortfall in revenue has a knock-on effect along the electricity supply-chain. Without being paid by consumers the distribution companies cannot pay the private electricity generators, who in turn cannot pay their fuel bills, forcing them to shut down or run at low capacity. That creates ever more “load shedding”, the local term for blackouts.
The same USAID–backed report claims power shortages retard economic growth by at least 2% a year. The situation is deteriorating as the debt mountain grows. Riots break out each summer in protest.

Power surge

Freeing consumers and industry from this misery is the priority of Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s new prime minister, who was inaugurated on June 5th. He owes his victory to public fury at the failure of the outgoing government of the Pakistan Peoples Party to solve the energy crisis.
If the system is to be fixed it is not just people in the slums who will have to cough up, but the rich and the powerful too, including the industrialists who enthusiastically supported Mr Sharif in last month’s election.
Government departments are also some of the biggest defaulters, owing as much as $2 billion, and the armed forces see little reason to fear being cut off if they do not pay. The finance ministry is often behind on paying its own subsidies into the system. Such cash injections are meant to make electricity more affordable, but they are not targeted at the poor and have soared to levels unaffordable for the government as world energy prices have risen.
The price supposedly charged to consumers for electricity is now nowhere near its cost of production. Mr Sharif hopes to improve the situation immediately by paying off a big chunk of the debt. With more money flowing through the system consumers should feel an instant relief.
“It’s a reset of the system so we can start off on a clean slate,” says Fariel Salahuddin, a power-sector specialist. “It doesn’t mean the debt goes away, it just comes off the books of private-sector entities.” Where such sums will come from is another matter. There has been talk of raising money through the sale of government bonds. Pakistan will also have to begin bail-out negotiations with the IMF soon if it is to avert a balance-of-payments crisis.
Hopes are pinned on multi-billion dollar aid from Saudi Arabia, probably in the form of deferred oil payments. The Saudis have long had cordial relations with Mr Sharif, whom they hosted during part of his time in exile from Pakistan. They provided similar help to the last government Mr Sharif headed in 1998.
“It is like you have a patient who is haemorrhaging: you have to give him a blood infusion to stabilise him,” says Omar Malik from PITCO, an energy consultancy. “But that won’t be sufficient if you don’t stop the bleeding.”
That means finding ways to generate electricity far more cheaply. Currently Pakistan has some of the most expensive energy in the region, not least because half of its power comes from burning gas and oil, most of which are imported. That is eating into the country’s already seriously depleted foreign-exchange reserves, pushing Pakistan even further towards a balance-of-payments crisis.
Coal-burning power stations could be built relatively quickly or existing ones converted, says Mr Malik. But Pakistan has been slow to exploit its own coal resources and most would have to be imported.
The country has huge potential for hydroelectricity, the cheapest form of energy, but dams can take the best part of a decade to build. Perhaps the best Mr Sharif can hope for in the coming years is that the rest of Pakistan might become a little more like Karachi, the southern city where electricity-industry managers have succeeded in keeping the fans and the lights on by cutting off completely any customers who don’t pay. That means regular electricity for the rich. And even less power for slum dwellers like Mr Hussain.

Guard- US China summit

The Chinese contrition over cyber-attacks that Washington had hoped for failed to materialise, but historic talks between presidents Obama and Xi Jinping lived up to their billing in other regards with agreement on issues ranging from climate change to North Korea.

Meeting in the baking heat of a Palm Springs country estate, the two leaders broke with protocol for two days of informal talks aimed at creating a new spirit of co-operation between the world's two economic superpowers.

The common ground they found, however, was not quite what the White House expected as talks on cyber-espionage were overshadowed byrevelations of Washington's own cyberwarfare strategy.

Both leaders discussed the issue for several hours, according to aides, but the best that the US was able to boast afterwards was that Beijing was no longer unaware of the depth of feeling on the subject.

"It's quite obvious now that the Chinese senior leadership understand clearly the importance of this issue to the United States," said Obama's national security adviser, Tom Donilon.

Washington stressed that it wished only to discuss "cyber-enabled economic theft" – the theft of intellectual by entities based in China of property and other kinds of property in the public and private realm – rather than broader espionage and surveillance activity, but the nuance may have been lost. Xi chastised US media for failing to report equally on attacks made against China.

The two leaders appeared to make progress in other areas, seemingly aware they faced increasingly shared challenges and responsibilities.

Under the climate deal, the US and China – the world's two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases – said they would work with other countries to reduce the fastest growing source of emissions, the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in air conditioners and refrigerators.

HFCs are an extremely potent class of greenhouse gas – up to 1,000 times more so than carbon dioxide – but they clear out of the atmosphere relatively quickly, in about 10 or 15 years.

That short lifespan means cutting HFCs can deliver almost immediate results, avoiding up to six times as much warming by 2050 as reductions in carbon dioxide.

The White House said on its website that the deal reached on Saturday could potentially reduce the equivalent of some 90 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050, or about a year's worth of current greenhouse gas emissions.

"Left unabated, HFC emissions growth could grow to nearly 20% of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, a serious climate mitigation concern," the White House said.

The potential significance of the co-operation between Washington and Beijing on climate issues could be even broader. China has in the past argued that cutting emissions would compromise its economic growth, while the US has typically has countered that it would not act on climate change until China did.

In the case of HFCs, there was already momentum building towards such a deal before Obama and Xi's meeting. More than 100 countries have shown support for using the Montreal protocol, an agreement reached in 1987 to phase out substances that were depleting the ozone layer, to act on reducing HFCs.

Donilon said the Chinese also reaffirmed their anxiety about nuclear proliferation in North Korea and pledged to work together to encourage regional talks.

"I think what you have essentially underway here is a shared threat analysis and a shared analysis as to what the implications and impact would be of North Korea pursuing a nuclear weapons programme," said Donilon.

Detailed quotes were less forthcoming from the Chinese delegation. Xi's senior foreign policy adviser, Yang Jiechi, simply said the two leaders "talked about co-operation and did not shy away from differences".

The bonhomie was also punctured by a last-minute decision from the Chinese delegation not to stay with Obama at the historic Sunnylands estate, favouring a downtown hotel – reputedly to minimise the risk of electronic eavesdropping.

Et - SMEs

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have been the backbone of the Indianeconomy. That is both a good and a bad thing.

The good part first. Employing close to 40% of India's workforce and contributing 45% to India's manufacturing output, SMEs play a critical role in generating millions of jobs, especially at the low-skill level. The country's 1.3 million SMEs account for 40% of India's total exports.

The bad thing is that SMEs in India, due to their low scale and poor adoption of technology, have very poor productivity.

Although they employ 40% of India's workforce, they only contribute 17% to the IndianGDP. Why? Too many firms stay small, unregistered and un-incorporated in the unorganised sector so that they can avoid taxes and regulations. "The firms have little incentive to invest in upgrading skills of largely temporary workers or in investing in capital equipment," says the latest Economic Survey.

The scenario is improving, albeit slowly, says Praveen Bhadada, director (market expansion), Zinnov, a technology consultancy firm. "Sickness in the SME sector was a big issue. Over the past 10 years, with some policy initiatives and government measures, the mortality rate has been going down," he says.

Financing is the biggest challenge and the lack of it is the main reason for an SME going out of business. "We see some of these SMEs exploring use of technology solutions to become efficient," adds Bhadada.

At 48 million, India has the second largest number of SMEs in the world. China leads with 50 million.

Toi - Sez in Myanmar and India

India has offered $150 million of credit for project exports to set up a SEZ in Myanmar and has expressed hope that the neighbouring country would permit Indian banks to set up branches there. The issues came up for discussion during the three-day visit of commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma to Nay Pyi Taw and Yangon. For the SEZ project, Myanmar government will provide suitable land for the purpose. "India has offered $150 million of credit for project exports for establishing a SEZ at Sittwe in Myanmar," an official statement said. "Sharma called for greater cooperation in banking sector and appreciated the Myanmar government's approval to allow Indian banks like United Bank of India to set up a representative office in the neighbouring country. He expressed hope that the two public sector banks viz., Bank of India and State Bank of India, who have also expressed interest, would also be permitted to operate in Myanmar," it said adding the commerce minister stressed the need for permission to open full-fledged banking services. Even setting up a joint venture state-owned bank with India and Myanmar sharing equity would strengthen ties in banking and commerce between the countries, it said. Besides, the minister discussed ways to increase cooperation in energy sector. "Sharma expressed satisfaction on the progress of cooperation in this field as the renovation of the Thanlyin Refinery and the ongoing upgradation of the Thanbayakan Petrochemical Complex proceeded smoothly," it said. Renovation of the Thanlyin Refinery was financed by $20 million line of credit signed in 2005-06. The upgradation of Thanbayakan Petrochemical Complex is being financed by another $20 million line of credit signed in 2008-09. Several Indian companies undertaking exploratory activities in northeast region of India which shares common geological traits with Myanmar are well placed to take up such activities there, the statement said. "Myanmar has shortlisted 59 companies for submission of final bids for 18 onshore gas blocks on offer. Seven Indian companies are part of those shortlisted," it added. State-run OVL and GAIL have announced $1.33 billion investment in China-Myanmar gas pipeline project, according to the statement. "Phase I of 200 km Kyaukphyu-Kunming Oil & Gas pipeline worth $475 million for construction of two parallel pipelines for gas and oil has been awarded to Punj Lloyd," it said. Both the countries also discussed revival of the discussions on the gas pipeline connection between India and Myanmar through Bangladesh. Sharma also met Myanmar President U Thein Sein and discussed ways to enhance economic cooperation between the countries. In 2012, the total trade between the countries stood at $1.87 billion. Besides, India has extended assistance for road development projects which include upgradation of the Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo road (about 160 kms); Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project which envisages development of road and inland waterways from Sittwe port in Myanmar to Mizoram. "BRO has completed the resurfacing and maintenance work of 132 kmsTamu-Kyigone-Kalemyo stretch of the road and handed over to Myanmar. The remaining 11kms of the 28km section on the Kyigone- Kalewa stretch is also to be handed over to Myanmar after completion," the statement said. India has also offered to help in the revival of 300 apparel factories in Myanmar. During his meeting with Myanmar President U Thein Sein, Sharma offered $5 million line of credit for revival of these factories, it said. The South India Textile Research Association (SITRA) will provide technical assistance to revive those factories, it said, adding a delegation comprising the experts, officials and businessmen will visit Myanmar within two weeks. Further, it said India will cooperate with Myanmar in formulating a common compliance code for standards and also the best practices in the factories. Sharma proposed to Myanmar President Thein Sein for a Common Compliance Code for textiles sector to enhance compliance standards in Myanmar for exports to developed countries. For capacity building in Myanmar textiles sector, India has offered two scholarships under National Institute of Design and 250 scholarships for textile workers under Integrated Skill Development Scheme. The statement said that during Sharma's visit, substantive decisions were taken on several issues and both the sides deliberated on various sectors including SME, agriculture and telecommunication to enhance cooperation.

HT - Austria, japan, Croatia pull out of Golan heights

In the annals of United Nations peacekeeping, the decision of Austria to follow Japan and Croatia and pull their few hundred troops off the thin blue line between Israel and Syria is among the most irresponsible and demeaning. It is an action that India — which has among the best, if not the 

best, peacekeeping traditions of any country, and also has troops on the Golan Heights — will hopefully not emulate.

Austria announced its pullout after a Filipino peacekeeper was injured in crossfire between Syrian rebel and government forces. Vienna cited the possibility of its own troops being killed or wounded. The contrast to India, which recently lost five of its finest in South Sudan but did not reconsider its mission in that troubled African country, is stark.

Austria and the Philippines have lost soldiers without complaint before in UN peacekeeping actions. But in this they showed the instincts of a “post-military” society and have shown why it and similar countries should never be considered for the dirty but important task of policing the world.

India has lost over 150 soldiers to peacekeeping efforts across the world, the bulk of them in the Congo, Somalia and the Gaza Strip — parts of the world where India’s direct national interest is negligible to nonexistent, and that is the precise point of peacekeeping.

Countries offer their troops for such tasks because they accept that a neutral military presence is often necessary to help implement a negotiated settlement or, as is more often the case, provide a buffer that allows an intractable dispute to be kept on the shelf for the time being.

Only the naive believe that UN peacekeeping should be a holiday position, doing nothing more than benignly watching a peaceful and stable environment. Sensibly enough, UN operations are normally in places where instability is rife and where there is a blurred line between peacekeeping and peace enforcement. Otherwise the blue helmet presence would be redundant.

Obviously, the Syrian civil war has completely changed the environment for the Golan Heights peacekeeping force. Their positions may need to be strengthened or fortified but a UN pullout would enormously increase the likelihood of Syrian combatants coming to blows with the Israeli armed forces.

The Golan Heights blue helmets are necessary because of exactly that reason and which is why this precipitous pullout is such an irresponsible act.