Understanding India - Neil deVotta

History of India

2600 BCE – Harappan civilization

1900 BCE – Advent of Aryans

First major empire (4^th century BCE – Mahapadma Nanda/ Magadha) à Alexander à Chandragupta Maurya (btw 324 and 313 BC) à Asoka (268 BCE) à 500 yrs of instability with various rulers like Indogreeks, Shakas, Kushanas à Chandra Gupta (320 CE) à Chandra Gupta II/Vikramaditya/Fa Hsien à Harshavardhana/Kanauj/Huan Tsang (At the same time Cholas, Hoysalas, Kakatiyas, Yadavas in the south)

Medieval India

712 CE. Arab outposts in Sindh à 1000 CE Mahmud Ghazni/ Somnath (1026) à Muhammad Ghauri 1175 (fight with Prithvirraj Chauhan) à Qutb-ud-din Aibak 1206 (Delhi Sultanate/Slave Dynasty) à Iltutmish à Raziya à Balban à Khlaji, Tughlaqs, Sayyids, Lodis (all Delhi Sultanate. At the same time in south, Vijayanagar)

Mughals: Babur (1526, defeated Ibrahim Lodi, Battle of Panipat I à Humayun à Sher Shah Suri (1540) à Akbar (1556, Battle of Panipat II) à Prince Salim/Jehangir (Guru Arjan of Sikhs put to death) à Shah Jahan à Dara Shikoh à Aurangazeb (1659)

British India’s emergence: Nawab of Bengal X Robert Clive (1757, Battle of Plassey) à Battle of Buxar 1764 à Won over Marathas, Mysore Tipu Sultan (1799 Battle of Seringapatnam, with the help of Nawab of Hyderabad),  Charles Napier’s capture of Sind in 1842 (“Peccavi” – I have sinned)

Nationalist Moment

Bengal (Mritunjaya Vidyalankara’s Rajbali, Raja ram mohan roy) à 1857 revolt à 1885 Congress party born à GANDHI!!!

Nehru, 1946 – “The dominant impulse in India under British rule was that of fear, pervasive, oppressive and strangling fear…It was against this all pervading fear that Gandhi’s quiet and determined voice was raised. Be not afraid… So suddenly as it were, the black pall of fear was lifted from the people’s shoulders, not wholly, of course, but to an amazing degree. The Indian people did not become more truthful than they were, nor did they change their essential nature overnight; nevertheless a sea change was visible as the need for falsehood and furtive behaviors lessened. It was a psychological change, almost as if some expert in psychoanalytical method had probed deep into the patient’s past, found out the origins of his complexes, exposed them to his view and thus rid him of that burden”

There were two visions of India – Gandhi’s and Nehru’s. Gandhi’s India was one Gandhi thought which could draw from her deep wells of spirituality. Whatever his failures, he rescued rural life from condescension it was subjected to by other forms of nationalism and gave it its rightful place as an essential part of Modern India. Gandhi is almost unique among 20^th century leaders in eschewing all forms of political violence. His radical insistence on nonviolence will remain a haunting reminder of the moral imperfections of other political ideologies. Nehru’s India is a more forward looking one, and it was this vision that triumphed after 1947. But now, how far Nehru’s India will endure remains to be seen. But if the history of Indian nationalism has taught us one thing, it is this: the story of Modern India is the story of Indians constantly struggling to discover and articulate what it means to be an Indian.

Indian Politics

In a troubled land, democracy means there is hope.

Jawaharlal Nehru was the schoolmaster of parliamentary government, Indira Gandhi its truant.

India’s democratic paradox – Deepening of democracy à spread of political activism à however shallowness of social capital

Population, urbanization and environment

Examined through four conceptual lens:

a)      Population lens – the question we cannot answer is how many people can Earth support?  Gandhi’s remarks during independence “It took Britain half the resources of the world to achieve this prosperity; how many planets would a country like India require?”

b)      Poverty lens – The Brundtland Commission’s proposed solution for environmental degradation caused by the world’s poor was sustainable development. The problem, many economists feel, is that the “ecosystem people” and “ecological refugees” India’s increased productive capacity has not provided jobs or wages sufficient to offset inflation or unpredictable weather that toys with the lives of people whose survival largely depends on forces of nature.

c)       Technology lens:

d)      Economic Rationalism lens: Liberalization has not visibly improved the nation’s environment. “We are making a mistake if we ask markets to do things they were not designed to do. Markets are meant to be efficient, not sufficient, greedy, not fair. If they do something good for whales or wilderness or God or grandchildren, that’s very coincidental.

TOI - CBI autonomy

The group of ministers' suggestions on independence of CBI, if cleared by the Cabinet, will see the CBI director have financial powers at par with directors generals of central paramilitary forces likes BSF, CRPF and ITBP.

Presently, the CBI director needs to take sanction from the department of personnel and training(DoPT) even if the agency needs mobile phones, or money for upgrading its office, laboratory or travelling abroad. "When these recommendations of the GoM are cleared, then CBI will have its own fund and CBI director won't need to approach the government for monetary needs. This was one of the important needs on which ministers agreed on Monday," said a top officer.

The agency will also have functional autonomy with no agency or government interfering in the investigations. It has also been decided that government may form a panel of retired judges to oversee its investigations. The GoM which finalised its recommendations on the methods to insulate the agency from external influence suggested to form an accountability committee of retired judges which would oversee the probes carried out by agency, confirmed the officer.

Another important recommendation made was on appointment of CBI director for which the PM, leader of opposition and Chief Justice of India would decide the name. The agency's director of prosecution (DoP), who reported to the law ministry directly, would also be under the command of the agency's director according to the recommendations. "There will be no interference of law ministry if this happens," said the officer.

Law minister Kapil Sibal had said on Monday, "We have decided and that is fundamental principle of the Constitution that there should be no interference of government or any other agency in the probe carried out CBI or any other agency. We are committed to that. We feel that there should be accountability along with autonomy".

Many officers in CBI feel that fresh changes, if approved, would give them freedom to act against high and mighty and also complete investigations in cases that are pending for ages now. CBI officials say that "their investigations remain stuck several times due to delayed replies by government departments". "If we are able to take decisions on our own, then suspects/accused in our cases would be chargesheeted in stipulated period in all the cases," said the official.

An affidavit would be submitted in Supreme Court on July 6 in the matter.

The GoM includes external affairs minister Salman Khurshid, home minister Sushilkumar Shindeand minister of state for personnel V Narayansamy apart from Sibal.

The government's move came after the Supreme Court had indicted CBI for being a 'caged parrot' of its political masters while hearing a case related to alleged irregularities in coal blocks allocation and directed it to make an effort to come out with a law to insulate CBI from external influence and intrusion.

ET- poverty statistics

Poverty level in the country may have declined significantly between 2009-10 and 2011-12, the latest government survey on household consumer expenditure indicates, giving something to the beleaguered UPA government to hard sell ahead of elections next year.

Back of the envelope calculations by ET suggest that poverty levels have fallen to less than 25% of population because of a sharp rise in rural incomes and decent performance by the agricultural sector. Adjusted for price rise, the poverty line for 2011-12, based on the Tendulkar committeecalculations for 2009-10- comes to 803 per capita per month for rural areas and 1038.6 for urban areas.

Applying these cut offs to the expenditure estimates released by the National Sample Survey Organization last week shows percentage of rural poor is likely to have fallen to 24.5% in 2011-12 from 29% estimated for 2009-10. The fall in the urban areas was flatter, from 16% in 2009-10 to 15.5% in 2011-12.

"Yes, poverty has declined. But to say by how much I would wait for the Planning Commission figures for that. The purchasing power of people has gone up which shows in the consumption story," said TCA Anant, chief statistician and secretary of Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. 
The decline is largely because agriculture sector performed well during fiscal year 2011 and 2012 against a drought situation in 2009. Agriculture sector expanded by 7.9% in 2010 -11 and 3.6% in 2011-12.

"During 2009-10, agriculture performed poorly as it was a drought year. Poverty in rural areas is closely linked to agriculture. Whereas 2011 was a normal year, we experienced high food inflation, which explains high purchasing power with the rural population and hence increase in consumption expenditure," said Pronab Sen, chairman, National Statistical Commission.

Agriculture sector expanded only by 0.8% in 2009-10. Also, rural wages have risen faster than urban wages, due to NREGA, Sen added. More people moving out of agriculture may also be a factor in the depleting poverty in rural areas, Amitabh Kundu, economics professor, JNU suggested.

Share of population engaged in agriculture came down to 49% in 2011-12. In rural areas, 59% of the men were engaged in agriculture as against 63% in 2009-10. The share in secondary activities like manufacturing went up to 22% instead of 19% among rural men.

Similar was the case with rural women. The cumulative effect was that overall wages rose by 29% in rural areas between 2009-10 and 2011-12 against 23% in urban areas. The reduction in poverty also explains the reduction in share of expenditure on food and a similar rise in non-food expenditure. The share of expenditure on food declined substantially from 53.6% to 48.6% in rural areas and from 40.7% to 38.5% in the urban areas. "In 2011-12, rural demand was very robust, which saw many corporates draw up strategies for the rural areas to tap that growing demand," said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic adviser,State Bank of IndiaBSE -2.09 %.

Despite the drastic fall in poverty in rural areas, still the average urban monthly per capital expenditure was 84% higher than average rural MPCE for 2011-12. And income disparities in rural areas have risen

The Hindu - India America Strategic relationship

Crappy article
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-art-of-managing-differences/article4830983.ece 

The Hindu - Mali and victory over terrorists

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/after-defeating-terror-winning-the-peace-together/article4830992.ece
On January 23, 2013, in The Hindu (Op-Ed, “United against the terrorist threat”), we had outlined the strategy of military intervention against the terrorists in Mali. We had underscored the coordination between the military aspect, aimed at wiping out terrorist groups, and a development policy for Mali and its political transition. At a time when the international community is mobilising its resources towards these ends, we found it important to present the efforts being undertaken to stabilise Mali durably.

The international community united to ensure security and stability.

At the request of the Malian authorities, France, the African forces of the neighbouring countries and the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) thwarted the attempt of terrorist groups to launch an attack on Bamako and transform Mali into a sanctuary for crime.

We have paid the price for it, the highest price: the blood of Malian, Chadian and French soldiers who have fallen in combat. Today, Mali’s territorial integrity has been restored and the terrorists have been defeated. A great number of them have been neutralised and their outfits destroyed along with a significant part of their resources.

This action will continue. The threat of terrorist groups in the Sahel and North Africa is a long-standing one. Although diminished, they retain a limited but real capacity for action and harm, as the May 23 attacks in Niger tragically show.

Now that the terrorists have been held in check, pursued and defeated in Mali, it is time to ensure the maintenance of law and order and prevent the return of jihadists. This is the mandate that the Security Council unanimously approved for the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) on April 25, 2013. It will replace the African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA) forces in July, while the French forces will be scaled down to 1,000 men by the end of this year. The United Nations Force, with over 11,000 men and a solid mandate, will have the means to defend itself, with the support of French forces in the event of serious, impending threats.

This operation will end once the Malian army is in a position to secure Mali’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. To attain this goal, almost 600 European trainers have been deployed as part of the European Union Training Mission (EUTM Mali) to help rebuild the Malian Army.

More generally, this endeavour concerns the entire region. Useful frameworks have already been put in place. The Global Counterterrorism Forum, co-chaired by Algeria and Canada, brings together all the countries of North Africa and the Sahel. The European Union has formulated a “Strategy for Security and Development in the Sahel,” which helps reinforce the security capabilities of the States of the region as part of a global approach.

Presidential elections

Development, political dialogue, democracy and governance are at the core of today’s efforts.

However, we must complete this fight by winning peace in Mali together. Parallel to the uncompromising fight against terrorist groups, it is crucial that the international community and Mali unite in their efforts to promote development, political dialogue, democracy and governance.

To confront the terrorist threat, there must be an active democracy, which reins in the ideologies of hate and intolerance advocated by radical groups. The President of Mali and the Malian government have therefore decided, with the National Assembly, to hold the presidential elections on July 28, 2013. A Dialogue and Reconciliation Commission has also been set up and commenced its work to promote the reconciliation of all the political elements of Mali, which stood up against terrorist violence both in the South and the North.

To win peace in Mali, it is also necessary to promote development and remedy the problems of the past: fragile institutions, insufficient governance and lack of coordination of international aid.

We would like this to be an exemplary process. With the aid of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the Malian authorities have themselves defined their reconstruction and development road map 2013-2014 for Mali’s sustainable economic recovery. All of Mali is concerned; not just the North, but the whole of Mali.

India’s role

At the joint invitation of the President of Mali, Dioncounda Traore, the President of France, François Hollande, and the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, more than 13 heads of State and 107 delegations — including India’s — spread over all the continents, participated in the donor conference, “Together for a New Mali,” which was held in Brussels on May 15, 2013. In all, pledges for a total of €3.2 billion in aid were confirmed, with Europeans alone contributing 1.35 billion. India pledged 100 million dollars. This is a good starting point for working in the long term.

French and European aid will contribute towards consolidating the reinstatement of the State, public services and administration, especially in the North, so that polls may take place all across Mali. It will support the evolution of the political process that should help foster national reconciliation, build inclusive institutions and establish legitimate democratic authorities.

The EU will extend its technical and financial assistance to this process in close coordination with the United Nations, which will be in charge.

A global answer

Development, democracy and efforts from all for Mali’s stability: we wish to mobilise all energies and show terrorist groups, no matter where they are, that the international community will not take matters lying down. We must all focus all the more to counter terrorism together as it is a scourge with increasing interactions: interactions between different regions of the world where terrorism manifests itself, as this is a phenomenon without borders; interactions with other threats, such as illegal trafficking or piracy, with the help of which terrorism subsists and is reinforced.

India, a great democratic nation that has herself been the victim of heinous terrorist acts, is on our side and we thank her once again for her unflagging support. Counterterrorism is a goal of prime importance for the international community and one of the cornerstones of the strategic partnership between France and India. We are conducting this global fight against terrorism together, in Mali, in the Sahel, in Africa, and everywhere where it is necessary

The Hindu - Kishenganga project

While water-sharing in the Indus system stands settled by the Indus Treaty 1960, divergences are possible, and have occurred, over the question of the compliance of Indian projects on the western rivers with certain stringent provisions of the Treaty which were meant to take care of Pakistan's concerns as a lower riparian.

The Treaty recognises three categories of such divergence: ‘questions' to be discussed and resolved at the level of the Indus Commission, or at the level of the two governments; ‘differences' (that is, unresolved ‘questions') to be referred to a Neutral Expert (NE) if they are of certain kinds (that is, broadly speaking, differences of a technical nature); and ‘disputes' (going beyond ‘differences,' and perhaps involving interpretations of the Treaty) that are referable to a Court of Arbitration. In the Kishenganga case, both ‘difference' and ‘dispute' come into play. Pakistan has proposed the reference of certain technical issues to a Neutral Expert, and the submission of a couple of other issues to a Court of Arbitrators.

The Kishenganga is a tributary of the Jhelum. It originates in J&K, crosses the Line of Control, runs for some 150 km in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and joins the Jhelum (in PoK). India proposes to build a dam on the Kishenganga shortly before it crosses the LoC, divert a substantial part of the waters of the river through a tunnel to the hydroelectric project (330 MW, that is, 110 MW x 3) located near Bonar Nala, another tributary of the Jhelum, and then return the diverted waters, after they have passed through the turbines, to the Jhelum via the Wular Lake.

The ‘differences' to be referred to a Neutral Expert will be regarding the compliance of the project features with the conditions and restrictions laid down in the Treaty (design of the project, quantum of pondage, need for gated spillways, placement of the gates, etc.). This reference, which will be somewhat similar to the reference to the NE in the Baglihar case, will not be discussed further in this article.

The main ‘dispute' to be referred to a Court of Arbitration is on the issue of whether the diversion of waters from one tributary of Jhelum to another is permissible under the Treaty. Art. III (2) of the Treaty requires India to let flow all the western rivers to Pakistan and not permit any interference with those waters, and Art. IV (6) calls for the maintenance of natural channels. If we go by these provisions, the diversion of waters from one tributary to another seems questionable. On the other hand, there is another provision (Ann. D, paragraph 15 (iii)) which specifically envisages water released from a hydroelectric plant located on one tributary of the Jhelum being delivered to another tributary; this seems to permit inter-tributary diversion. The correct understanding of these provisions and the determination of the conformity of the Kishenganga Project to the Treaty is a matter for the two governments to agree upon, or for the Court of Arbitration to decide.

Any diversion of waters from a river is bound to reduce the flows downstream of the diversion point. It is true that the diverted waters will be returned to the Jhelum, but there will certainly be a reduction of flows in the stretch of the Kishenganga (some 150 km) before it joins the Jhelum. This will affect not merely certain uses of the waters but also the river regime itself and the ecological system. It may be true that only a small part of the waters (30 per cent or so) flows from the Indian part to the Pakistani part and that the rest (70 per cent) of the flows arise after the river crosses the LoC. However, the diversion of a substantial part of the former by India will undoubtedly have some impacts downstream.

Assuming that diversion from the Kishenganga to another tributary is found permissible, there is a condition attached: the existing agricultural use and use for hydro-electric power generation on the Kishenganga in Pakistan must be protected. There is indeed some existing agricultural use along the Kishenganga (Neelum) in PoK. Pakistan is also planning the Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project at a point on the Neelum before it joins the Jhelum. These claims of existing uses will probably be contentious issues between the two countries, with reference to (a) the crucial date for determining ‘existing use' and (b) the quantum of existing use.

Arbitration is action under the Treaty and is therefore not a matter for concern. In this case, the arbitration process has already been initiated. However, it seems to this writer that even at this stage an effort should be made to reach an agreed settlement on this project. The reasons for saying so are as follows:

First, arbitration by a court of seven arbitrators of the highest international standing will be a very expensive process; it may also take a long time — possibly several years.

Secondly, arbitration is essentially an adversarial process. Each side will try to make the strongest possible presentation of its own case, and question the other's. The media in both countries will keep reporting developments in the case, probably in a partisan manner. All this will definitely cause an accentuation of strained relations between the two countries.

Thirdly, the outcome of the process is uncertain. There are three possibilities: a clear negative finding (that is, the diversion of waters is impermissible under the Treaty), in which case the project will have to be abandoned; or a clear positive finding (that the diversion is permissible) in which case, the project can go ahead as planned; or a mixed finding that the diversion is permissible but must be such as to minimise adverse downstream impacts, in which case India may have to reduce the planned diversion and let a larger quantum of waters flow down. It would be very rash to predict the outcome of the process, but undertaking that rashness, the author would venture to suggest that a mixed finding seems more likely than a categorical one (positive or negative).

If that tentative forecast seems plausible, is it really necessary to go through a costly and time-consuming process of arbitration to arrive at that result? Is it not possible — and more sensible — for the two countries to try for an agreed settlement of the dispute even at this stage? It should not be extremely difficult to arrive at a satisfactory, negotiated settlement on the reconciliation of the conflicting interests of the Kishenganga and Neelum-Jhelum projects, as also on the extent of agricultural use that needs to be provided for, and on the ‘ecological flows' that must be maintained.

A second issue that Pakistan proposes to refer to the Court of Arbitration is the legitimacy of drawdown flushing of the reservoir for sediment-control. This is not specific to the Kishenganga project but is a general issue applicable to all future projects. In the case of Baglihar, the Neutral Expert had strongly recommended periodical drawdown flushing of the reservoir as a means of sediment control, which (in his view) was part of proper maintenance, and had observed that while the dead storage could not be used for operational purposes, there was no objection to its use for maintenance purposes. Pakistan has been unhappy with that recommendation, but could not challenge it as the NE's findings are final and binding. It is now raising this as a general issue before the Court of Arbitration. Three questions arise:

(i) Can an issue on which a NE has given a final and binding finding be raised again before another NE or a Court of Arbitration?

(ii) If the NE's finding is applicable only to the particular project in question and not to others, should we accept the position that there can be substantially different (even contradictory) principles (laid down by different NEs) applying to different projects?

(iii) If drawdown flushing is ruled out, then must the corollary of heavy siltation and reduction of project life (as in the case of Salal) be accepted as inevitable? If so, does this not amount to ignoring the words “consistent with sound and economical design and satisfactory construction and operation” and again “unless sediment control or other technical considerations necessitate this” in the Treaty?

These questions will no doubt be argued before the Court by the two countries.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-granted-more-time-to-file-submissions-on-kishanganga/article4831256.ece

The Hindu - TRAI's regulation of media

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) is all set to recommend the creation of an ‘institutional buffer between corporate owners and newspaper management’ to the government. TRAI, which is also the regulator for the broadcasting industry, will also suggest ways to restrict cross-media ownership in line with practices in ‘most other established democracies.’

TRAI chairman Rahul Khullar told The Hindu his recommendations would be based on the principle that corporate ownership of media must be separated from editorial management, as “the media serves public interest”.

Mr. Khullar said he had no problem with corporates investing in or owning media houses for profits. “But the problem arises when the corporate wants to abuse the media it controls to project a coloured point of view for vested interests. There is conflict of interest here.”

Mr. Khullar plans to recommend a special organisational structure in which the corporate owner — who may have multifarious business interests — would have only a financial interest in the company, restricted to owning of shares. The editorial operations would be done under a different structure where the corporate owner would have little say.

TRAI has earlier flagged the issue of a “growing number of undesirables, including builders and politicians” acquiring media interests. Mr. Khullar pointed out that even Vice President Hamid Ansari had spoken out about the “paid news menace” recently.

“The idea is to create an institutionalised buffer between the corporate owner and newspaper management to ensure the independence of TV channels and the print media to articulate impartial, free and fair editorial policy,” said Mr. Khullar. He, however, admitted that the process was still “in the works”. The “creative challenge” for TRAI was evolving the precise design.

Recommendations on corporate control will form a part of TRAI’s suggestions to the government on cross-media ownership. In a consultation paper on the issue, the authority also flagged the issue of certain media houses having interests in all forms — television, print, and radio — which led to “horizontal integration,” and asked whether there ought to be restrictions.

Mr. Khullar categorically rejected objections from media houses that any such restriction would violate the right to freedom of speech under Article 19 of the Constitution: “All robust democracies have some restrictions on cross-media ownership. This is absolutely necessary to maintain the plurality and diversity of media. Let us see what form it takes.”

TRAI is understood to be contemplating a “two out of three rule”, whereby a media house could have interests in two of three mediums among print, TV or radio. But no decision has been taken yet.

It plans to submit a report in eight to 10 weeks. Over the past few months, it has held open house discussions on the issue across the country, sought submissions on its consultation paper and spoken to stakeholders. It submitted a report on the issue in 2009. But since no action was taken and the situation had changed significantly, the government asked the regulator to come out with a fresh set of recommendations last year.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/media-veterans-activists-welcome-trai-proposal-to-curb-corporate-control/article4831113.ece

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/editorial/stop-this-meddling-with-the-media/articleshow/20674480.cms

DB - Turkey affair

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2013/06/19/will-turkey-s-protest-end-democracy.html?source=socialflow&account=newsweek&medium=twitter

How Erdogan after gaining 50 % votes started 'authoritarianism' and his AKP party introduced measures like mandatory Islam education in schools and restriction on alcohol sales, provoking Occupy Gezi protests and how he cracked down on them, offered a referendum and got rejected.

ET - India's trade deficit

The figures for May reveal that India's trade deficit has worsened further, what with exports declining and imports — notably of gold — rising.

Heightened imports can, of course, lead to much economic gain, but a persistent trade deficit needs to be addressed (and corrected) with proactive policy.

The data show that imports from tiny Switzerland have shot up an eyepopping 128% in April (over the like period last year), making it the top country of import, well ahead of China.

The figures seem questionable and call for a proper scrutiny, along with a medium-term plan to change the scenario of persistent trade deficits with our main trading partner, China. There is much scope to press for improved trade access.

But the latest trade figures also point at structural weaknesses in our international trade. Now the single biggest item in value terms in India's merchandise exports are petroleum products, but these are highly import-intensive, with quite minimal value-addition and thus hold little upside for export growth.

More important, for the next biggest item, engineering goods, which account for about 19% share of exports, the monthly figures show a markedly declining growth trend. The same is the case for textiles, which make up about 9% of the export basket.

We clearly need to strategise policy to boost competitive advantage in such high potential sectors like engineering goods, textiles and transport equipment. Other segments like pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals hold much potential.

But the biggest opportunity may well be in electronic goods, which account for barely 2% of our export share, about the same as ore and minerals. What is required is vision to chalk out and implement an eco-system that steps-up manufactures and boosts productivity in tandem. It would pay rich dividends, for years.

FRONTLINE - Slow regress in banking

he RBI, through its latest guidelines on private banks, seems to have attempted to ring-fence banking activity so as to ensure regulatory control and keep the number of new entrants low and their intent clean.
JULY 1 is the last date for receipt of applications in a third post-liberalisation call for grant of licences to private sector entities wanting to establish banks in India. In the first round, 10 banks were licensed on the basis of guidelines issued in 1993. This was followed by the grant of licences to another two, almost 10 years later, on the basis of the revised guidelines issued in 2001. This third-round call is based on the new guidelines issued on February 22 this year. It should be obvious why each call for applications has followed the issue of a new set of guidelines. Over time the kind of private entities that can enter banking has been redefined and the terms on which they can do so have been diluted. Experience, the government would argue, calls for revisions in policy. When policy is revised, eligible players must be given another chance to consider entering the banking sector.
Given this background, one tendency would be to dismiss the current call as just another step in the long liberalisation journey the Government of India embarked on in the early 1990s. However, there is one feature of the February 22 guidelines that do make this round of potential private entry special. This is that entities and groups in the private sector that are “owned and controlled by residents” are to be allowed entry into banking. Read otherwise, this means that business groups and other private corporate entities are also allowed to enter banking, subject to the conditions specified in the new guidelines.
Major shift in stance

Given India’s post-Independence banking history, this is indeed a major shift in stance. That history was one in which the government, through its designated regulator, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), not only sought to strengthen a poorly developed banking system afflicted by periodic bank failures, but also attempted to impose a degree of “social control” over banking, so that the latter can serve a host of developmental objectives. For a little more than two decades after Independence, this attempt to gain control over private banking was reflected in a series of legislative and administrative initiatives. But in terms of the spread of banking, the growth in deposits and lending, and the distribution of credit across sectors, units and households, the writ of the government was noticeable more in its absence.

Nothing illustrated this more than the fact that the share of credit provided to the agricultural sector in total advances barely exceeded two per cent at its peak. A sector that accounted for between 40 and 50 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and two-thirds of the nation’s workforce was almost completely excluded from the formal credit system. The reason was obvious, a series of official committees found big business houses had a stranglehold over the private financial sector, with some directly owning and controlling banks. Punjab National Bank, Universal Bank of India and Bank of Lahore were controlled by the Sahu Jain group; United Commercial Bank by Birla; Oriental Bank of Commerce by Thapar group; Hindustan Commercial Bank by Juggilal Kamlapat; and Indian Overseas Bank by Muthia, to name a few. Many of these banks featured among the top 20 of that time.
Such corporate control over banking had resulted in the disproportionate diversion of credit to large industry, especially to segments of it that were directly in control of the banking system. The Dutt Committee found that in 1960 the top 20 private sector banks accounted for 61.7 per cent of all scheduled bank deposits and 73.2 per cent of scheduled bank advances. Around 10 per cent of the aggregate advances made by these banks went to companies in which their directors had an interest. This convinced the government of the time that public ownership was a prerequisite for both the spread of banking and the advent of socially relevant banking. It opted for the nationalisation of leading banks.
The results in terms of the spread of banking, the growth in deposits and advances and the distribution of credit were dramatic. Whatever else may be said of the nationalisation of banking, its success in terms of realising what the government did not manage to achieve between Independence and 1969 cannot be denied. This history had four implications. The first was that, despite some obvious inadequacies, the credibility of public sector banking was high in India, both from the point of view of ensuring financial stability and from the point of view of financial development and inclusion. The second was that the RBI as regulator not only shared this glory, but also grew accustomed to the power and the prestige that its role as banking regulator gave it. The third was that there were strong forces within the public sector, at the level of both bank officers and employees, which were interested in protecting the public banking framework and could find good arguments to support their cause. Finally, even when the advocates of liberalisation made a case for revisiting the question of permitting the entry of private banks, the need to keep the corporate sector at bay was more or less taken for granted.

One consequence has been the neoliberal transition in the banking area has been disappointingly slow from the point of view of the “reformers”. Two decades after the doors were reopened for private interests, not much has been achieved in terms of private presence. In the first round of private entry in 1993, 10 banks were allowed to emerge out of existing financial institutions or be set up anew, which included ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, UTI Bank (which later became Axis Bank), Global Trust Bank (which failed and merged with Oriental Bank of Commerce), Times Bank (which merged with HDFC Bank) and IndusInd Bank. In the second round in 2004, Kotak Mahindra Finance Ltd was permitted to convert itself into a bank, and YES Bank was granted a new licence. Overall only 12 private banks were established. Of these a few have merged with other banks, both public and private.
This raises the question whether the current third-round call for applications for establishing private banks, by private entities which includes corporates, would be the final push that would transform Indian banking once again, restoring this time the control that big capital had and lost. The evidence seems to be that the RBI is trying hard to ensure this does not happen. While having to succumb to pressures that have been building since the Narasimham Committees of the 1990s and allow corporate entry into banking, the RBI has sought to “ring-fence” banking activity in the hope that it would ensure substantial control by the regulator and keep the number of new entrants low and their intent clean.
Governance structure

To that end it has opted for a specific corporate governance structure for banks being set up under the new guidelines. To start with, promoters and promoter groups seeking licences will have to create a “non-operative financial holding company” (NOFHC), which does not itself engage directly in financial activity. The NOFHC shall hold 40 per cent of the paid-up voting equity of the bank, which shall be Rs.5 billion at the minimum. Individual promoters (including their relatives and companies in which they have 50 per cent or more equity holding) cannot each hold more than 10 per cent of the voting equity shares in the NOFHC. In addition, the promoter group must include one or more companies in which the public holds no less than 51 per cent of the voting equity, and this company (or companies) must hold at least 51 per cent of the voting equity shares in the NOFHC. The idea is to diversify ownership.
However, promoters with 10 per cent voting rights can own a significant share and even controlling block (so long as it is less than 50 per cent of total voting equity) in the company/companies that are part of the promoters group, giving them substantial control over management of the bank. So the victory, if any, is only partial. The weapon the RBI has is its right to decide whether a promoter or promoters group is “fit and proper”, in the sense of having sound credentials, with that decision being “a matter of overall judgment” and not based on specified criteria.

The RBI has also sought to ensure the separation of bank and non-bank financial activities. To that end it has specified that the NOFHC established by potential promoter groups must as a holding company “hold the bank as well as all the other financial services entities of the Group regulated by RBI or other financial sector regulators”. Two separations are sought to be ensured here: one is between all regulated financial activities, and the other industrial, commercial and unregulated financial activities of individuals and entities in the promoters group; the other is between the banking and the regulated non-banking financial activities of these individuals and entities. The objective, according to the RBI, is that the corporate structure should be such that it does not “impede the financial services entities held by the NOFHC from being ring-fenced”, that the RBI “would be able to supervise the bank, the NOFHC, and its subsidiaries/joint ventures/associates on a consolidated basis”, and that, the RBI “will be able to obtain all required information relevant for this purpose, smoothly and promptly”.
There is a problem here too. Many regulated financial activities are subject to regulators other than the RBI, and the proposed structure does involve the RBI stepping beyond its turf. In the event, the RBI had to issue a clarification that “while the structure prescribed in the guidelines is the preferred structure, the intending applicants should approach the other financial sector regulators for bringing the entities regulated by them under the NOFHC”. Their decision would prevail, with the minimal requirement that all RBI-regulated entities will necessarily be under the NOFHC.
Thus, the process of liberalisation having begun, the loss of the RBI’s control and the restoration of private influence over banking is difficult to stall, let alone reverse. Perhaps for that reason the RBI has not kept its promise, made in the February guidelines, to come out with an overall policy discussion paper on banking structure in India within two months. Realising that structure may not be possible. All that the RBI has managed to do and is likely to strive to ensure is that the transition is slow and long drawn, much to the irritation of the “reformers”.
But the pressure is on. After the RBI issued its new guidelines in February it had to agree to issue a clarificatory note in response to queries that it chose to formally entertain. It received 443 queries from 34 individuals/organisations. As a result, while the guidelines themselves filled just 19 pages, the clarifications (including questions), released on June 3, run into 165 pages. It must be said that despite the unnecessary officialese in the RBI’s guidelines note, the answers to many of these questions are self-evident. The fact that they have been raised does not inspire confidence in the potential applicants concerned for bank licences. But, perhaps, the real intent of the questions is to keep the pressure on the RBI, so as to prevent it from turning down too many applications and being too overbearing as a regulator as and when the new banks commence business.

TOI - IITM and ParamYuva II India's supercomputers

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/06/supercomputers?fsrc=rss - Tianhe 2 and Titan (China and US) are first two.

Two of the four supercomputers in the country that feature in the top 100 in the list of 500 fastest supercomputers in the world, are from Pune. While the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) supercomputer stands 36th in the list, ParamYuva II, developed by the Centre for Development of Advanced computing (C-DAC) has bagged the 69th position.

The IITM supercomputer is yet to be installed while the Param Yuva II became operational from February 8 this year.

The list of top 500 supercomputers in the world was announced on Tuesday during the launch of the opening session of the International Supercomputing Conference in Leipzig, Germany.

Rajat Moona, director general, C-DAC said, "This is a major step for the country (for two of its supercomputers) to figure in the top 100 fastest supercomputers in the world. Over the years, India was losing its position in the supercomputer area in the world. In 2008, India had 10 machines in the top 500, but after that there was a bit of a downfall. In contrast, in 2004, China was nowhere on the scene but in the latest list, its supercomputer has taken the top ranking."

Moona said that India has taken a major step in the latest rankings and has more potential to move up as there is a huge demand for supercomputing in the country. He said that the union government is also looking at making an investment of Rs 5,000 crore in this area over the next five years.

Moona said, "There is a so much of high-end work being done in the area of weather forecasting, fluid dynamics, air borne bodies, ship movement, disaster management, design of earthquake prone structures that need massive supercomputing infrastructure. As a result of this need, the supercomputing infrastructure is also improving and has led to an improvement in world rankings for the country."

The Param Yuva II has a capacity of 524 teraflops and within three weeks of launching it was already running with a load of 70% of its capacity. Precise weather forecasting, faster tapping of natural resources in the sea and designing of customised drugs for individuals are some of the applications possible using Param Yuva II. It also promises to be energy efficient with 35% reduction in energy consumption as compared to other supercomputers.

The IITM supercomputer will start functioning in the next two to three months, Suryachandra Rao, chief programme scientist, department of high performance computing, IITM said. Rao said, "The supercomputer, once installed, will boost research in weather and climate forecasting as well as air pollution." Rao said that the process of installing the supercomputer was in progress and within one week of installation, it will be running. All the institutes under the union ministry of earth sciences will be using the IITM supercomputer facility.

Pride of place

Four supercomputers from India make it to fastest 100, of which two are from Pune

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) supercomputer stands 36th

Param Yuva II of Centre for Development of Advanced computing (C-DAC), gets 69th position

In 2008, India had 10 machines in the top 500, but had lost its position over the years

China, which was nowhere until 2004, got the top ranking this year

The Hindu - Telegram service in India closes after a century of service

When V. Karuppiah thought about his retirement next month, little did he realise that the department he has served for 30 years would also bid farewell along with him. With the death knell to be sounded for telegraph services on July 15, senior citizens are taking a nostalgic trip about the telegrams they sent.

“After the announcement, we have one or two people dropping in every day just to send a last telegram,” says Suresh Babu, who has been booking telegrams for 15 years. Before him, his father Kathiravel performed the same job.

Does anyone use the telegram these days, when text messages and e-mail can convey messages in less than a second? Employees at telegraph offices tell a different, albeit insightful tale. The Central Telegraph Office, which is now a customer care centre at Cantonment, sends and receives anywhere between 50 to 100 messages a day, says K. Raja, chief telegraph officer. “Wedding greetings and personal telegrams are rare, but most telegrams pertain to legal matters.”

But telegraph services today are not just limited to matters pertaining to litigations, says Vijayalakshmi, another chief telegraph officer. “Banks send telegrams intimating vehicle seizures in case of non-repayment of loans. A telegram always alerts people and spurs them to action.”

Insurance companies and even city corporation use the telegraph services occasionally to remind citizens to pay taxes on time or premium, says B. Ramamoorthy, section supervisor. “We have colleges sending bulk telegrams to parents if fees are not paid on time.”

In legal matters, be it sending a notice or court order or informing family of a person who has been arrested, the telegraph is the essential tool of communication, besides being a document of proof. “A telegram is considered as constructive notice in a court case as it is a proof of delivery,” says Jayanthi Rani, advocate. “Sending an e-mail or sms requires both sender and receiver to possess the gadget. But a telegram delivered by the public sector agency can reach anyone in any remote corner.”

Consumer activists, and lawyers, are inclined to fight to keep the century-and- a-half service alive. It is the illiterate and those in remote areas who are bound to suffer, says M. Sekaran, president, Federation of Consumer and Service Organisations.

The organisation has appealed to the Union Minister of Telecommunications to reconsider the decision to close telegraph services. In a representation, he says the BSNL, to whom telegraph services were handed over in 1990, had increased the telegraphic charges without justification from Rs. 3.50 to Rs. 27.50. The increase in cost and absence of delivery staff has led to the quandary.

Although many developed countries had done away with the telegram, they had ensured that modern means of communication had maximum reach, says P. Soundararajan, president, Tiruchi Philatelists’ Association. “Without ensuring such universal access, shutting down the service is a big blow.”

The Tiruchirapalli central telegraph office is one of the oldest telegraph offices in the South, according to the Tiruchi district gazetteer. It was established during the British rule in June 1882 at Tiruchi Fort under the charge of a telegraph master. The telegraph office was moved to a building in Cantonment occupied by the post office on January 31, 1886. Later, several local post offices in Srirangam, Teppakulam, and Tennur provided the facility.

The Hindu - Extinction of N nigricans turtles in tripura

The soft-shell N nigricans turtles, a rare species found only in the tank of the Tripureswari Temple in Gomati district of Tripura, is facing extinction.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) had classified that specimen, popularly known as Bostami turtle, as extinct in the wild.

The fifteenth century temple constructed by King Dhanyamanikya in Udaipur, 55 km from Agartala, is believed to be one of the holiest Hindu shrines in the country and considered to be one of the 51 Shakti Peethas. It is also known as Kurma Pitha because the temple premises resembles ‘Kurma’ i.e. turtle.

The rare species of Bostami turtles inhabit the Kalyan Sagar lying in the eastern side of the temple.

Spread over 6.4 acres, it was a natural habitat of the turtles. They come up to the shore looking for crumbs that visitors buy at the nearby stalls and feed to these reptiles, as part of the rituals. Devotees feed them with puffed rice and biscuits.

Cement embankments

The Matabari Temple Committee cemented the banks of the lake about a decade ago killing turtles. A team of Tripura State Pollution Control Board had found that the quality of water in the lake was good and even drinkable.

Death of at least seven tortoises was reported within a year of constructions of the cemented embankments in 1998, officials of the state fisheries department said. Visitors, tourists, pilgrims and devotees are throwing plastic carry bags every day into the lake. As a result the bed of the lake is now full of polythene/plastics bags.

According to the experts, it is only the construction of the embankments that increased the mortality of the turtles spoiling the natural habitat as well as places for laying eggs for this turtles.

“As an amphibian it is extremely essential for the turtle to have sandy exposure, which is not available in the lake after the construction of walls around the water body,” says Mrinal Kanti Dutta, a professor of Central Fisheries College, Lembucherra, near here.

Jyoti Prakash Roy Chowdhury, an environmentalist and a member of State Wildlife Board, said the animal had problem in basking on the beach as the embankments were made pucca.

In the meeting of the State Wildlife Board chaired by Chief Minister Manik Sarkar on June 3, Roy Chowdhury suggested that the back side embankment of the lake be dismantled and land near the lake be acquired so that the turtles could lay eggs comfortably. Sources in the fisheries department said shifting of the animals from the pond is impossible due to religious belief of locals.

A population of these turtle was identified in the kacha pukuri (Pond) on Nilachal hill, next to Kamakhya temple at Guwahati in Assam, Roy Chowdhury said.

These turtles were traditionally believed to be nearly extinct and only available at a pond of the shrine of Hazrat Bayezid Bostami in Chittagong, where there are around 150 of them. He said, “It has been found that at least one wild population still exists in the Jia Bhoroli river, a tributary of Brahmaputra in Assam“.

Roy Chowdhury suspected that there may be some genetic problem as breeding is taking place within a small community in the lakes or ponds. “So, exchange of population and breeding among the new communities is needed to avoid any genetic problem,” he added.

Keywords: Tirupureswari Temple, Tirupura Sundari temple, Gomati district, International Union for Conservation of Nature, N nigricans turtle species

ET - Natural gas power stations and their gas problems

Around Rs 40,000 crore investment in the power sector is in limbo for want of government decision on allocation of natural gas to the proposed electricity stations.

According to sources, besides the existing power plants, there are about 8,000 MW gas-based power plants under construction and the gas linkage to such projects have not been granted due to shortage of gas.

Of the 8,000 MW under construction projects, about 1,335 MW have been completed and others are in advanced stages of construction, sources said.

After commissioning of these under construction projects, total gas-based project capacity will go up to 24,000 MW.

They further added the projected investment of around Rs 40,000 crore is at the risk of becoming Non-Performing Assets ( NPAs).

Power Ministry may soon approach Cabinet Committee on Investment ( CCI) to seek diversion of as much as 6 million standard cubic meters per day of gas currently consumed by non-core sectors like steel and petrochemicals, to power plants.

As much as 15,000 MW gas-based capacity in the country has taken a hit after RILBSE 0.91 % snapped supplies from its KG-Basin in March this year.

"The decline of gas based generation besides affecting bank exposure will also affect economic development, especially of the power-starved Southern region," sources said.

The are 55 gas-based stations -- 14 ( Andhra Pradesh), 12 (Gujarat), 6 ( Tamil Nadu), 5 ( Assam), 4 each in Delhi and Tripura, 3 each in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, 2 (Uttar Pradesh) and one each in Haryana and Puducherry

Rohith's articles

http://m.business-standard.com/wapnew/storypage_content.php

The Hindu - Need for food security

As India’s parliamentarians continue to disrupt Parliament or the so-called “Temple of Democracy”, the much anticipated National Food Security Bill (NFSB) has been put on the back burner. Consequently, millions of Indian will continue to sleep on empty stomach, tossing and turning all night dreaming for the day when eating food will not be a luxury anymore. Ironically, India presents a unique case of a country that, on the one hand, has the largest number of hungry people and, on the other, has an inventory of food stocks rotting in the granaries. As per the World Food Program (WFP), “India is home to about 25 per cent of the world’s hungry poor. Although the country grows enough food for its people, pockets of hunger remain.”

Another estimate by the Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reveals that out of 868 million undernourished people worldwide, 217 million people live in India. The proposed National Food Security Bill is a step in the right direction to bridge the inequality in the distribution of food by assuring sufficient quantity and quality of foodgrain to the citizens.

It is universally accepted that hunger remains the number one cause of death in the world and India is badly affected as it is home to the largest number of undernourished people. Hunger is co-related to nutrition as prolonged hunger can lead to malnutrition, which will have an adverse affect on cognitive and motor development of the victims.

Critics of the NFSB often point to the heavy leakages in the public distribution system that make this bill less efficient and often call it a waste of resources. They should be alarmed by the fact that at least 61 million pre-school children are stunted in India and at least 200 million Indians are hungry and malnourished. While we boast of the demographic dividend as the country’s USP, malnutrition is seriously jeopardising the health of almost 50% of children on whom we are banking to share the responsibility of our nation. The World Bank estimates that micronutrient deficiency alone may cost India $2.5 billion annually and another report estimates that malnutrition knocks off at least 3% of the GDP of the country, thus taking away the demographic advantage.

Other critics say that a faster economic growth rather than food security will help reduce malnutrition. However, if economic growth were to reduce malnutrition then States like Gujarat would have been ranked higher in Human Development Indicators. A closer look at the HDI data reveals that despite the high economic growth enjoyed by Gujarat, a high rate of malnutrition still prevails.

In Gujarat, 45% of children are undernourished, 36% of women have BMI less than 18.5 and 61% of the women belonging to the Scheduled Tribes fall under the undernourished category. Finally, the incidence of poverty is as high as 50% in rural Gujarat.

On the other hand, countries like Brazil have made significant leaps in overcoming hunger by providing food security to the citizens. Brazil’s Fome Zero or Zero Hunger programme was initiated by the government in 2003. Based on the pillars of conditional cash transfer, school meals and strengthening family agriculture, Fome Zero has been able to reduce poverty, provide food security and reduce hunger. Within five years, Brazil’s child mortality rate was reduced by 13 points and 20 million people came above the poverty line. Although India and China demonstrated better economic growth than Brazil in the last decade, Brazil surpassed both countries in reducing poverty and increasing food security for its citizen.

No doubt that the food security bill needs more clarity on public distribution, grievance redress and provision of fortified meal. There is also need to include sanitation, health, and increased farm production within the ambit of food security. In future, there should be a possibility to include multiple ministries and government programmming like mid-day meal & MGNREGA in conjunction with food security. However, this is a remarkable initiative by the UPA government to bring people out of hunger and undernourishment.

The food security bill is an opportunity to bring those millions of citizens out of starvation darkness by offering them affordable and healthy food and leading the nation to a prolific sunshine.

(The writer is a social healthcare analyst and has internationally worked on health welfare programmes. Email: anurodhj@gmail.com)

Keywords: National Food Security Bill, Food security bill, World Food Program, India malnourishment, Brazil Zero Hunger

TOI - Policy deficiency in food storage

NEW DELHI: With the UPA government serious about implementing the Food Security Bill, the Committee on Public Undertakings, headed by Congress's Jagdambika Pal, will take up for discussion on Monday a recent report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) on the assessment of food grain management across the country.

The auditor's report paints a grim picture on the states' lack of capability to manage operational stock of food grains — a majority of which is wasted due to insufficient storage facilities. Out of 31 states and Union territories (UTs), the report says only eight of them have storage facilities available for 120 days required for management of food stocks.

Most of the poor states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Tami Nadu and Assam do not have capacity to handle stocks for more than 13-75 days. States like Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, J&K, Jharkhand and Assam cannot handle their stock even for a month.

Only Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry and Rajasthan have adequate storage facilities. A few states like Chhattisgarh and UP have the required space to maintain stocks for four months.

Already damages are causing huge dent to the public exchequer. Audit reveals more than 1 lakh tonne of wheat worth Rs 122 crore was damaged in Punjab and Haryana alone in the last couple of years due to lack of proper storage.

Despite the fact that over hundred lakh tonnes of food grain stocks as old as 2007-08 were still lying in custody of states, the government continued on an ambitious procurement drive. The procurement in the central pool increased from 343 lakh tonnes in 2006-07 to 824 lakh tonnes as on June 1, 2012. However, there was not much improvement in storage space or movement of food grains from procuring states to consuming states in the last decade.

The policy deficiency was not limited to storage and procurement. At a time when the government's spend on food subsidy was estimated to touch Rs 1.25 lakh crore for implementing the food security scheme, the UPA regime exported food grains from its overflowing reserves at subsidized rate causing loss of over Rs 1,700 crore (in 2012-13).

The export was allowed for lack of space to stock them. Experts say instead of exporting at a loss, the stocks if released in the domestic market could have substantially brought down inflationary pressures on the food grains.

Surprisingly, the Centre has no idea how much buffer stock it requires to meet food security such as for emergency needs arising out of natural calamity, price stabilization, food security reserve, targeted public distribution system and to maintain for other welfare schemes within the minimum buffer stock.

The existing policy did not specify the maximum and manageable level of stock to be maintained in the Central pool.

Indian Express - India's BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence)

India's missile defence system is set to get a big boost as it is developing capability to intercept enemy missiles fired from a distance of up to 5,000km, in effect tackling any possible threat from countries such as China.

The capability is being developed by DRDO as part of the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) shield, whose first phase is ready for deployment possibly in Delhi.

Development of the first phase of the BMD programme has been completed, DRDO chief Avinash Chander told PTI in an interview.

Under this, the BMD shield can tackle enemy missiles fired at from ranges up to 2,000 km.

Taking this forward, the DRDO is enhancing the capability of BMD in phase-II to deal with threat from missiles of longer range of up to 5,000 km.

"We are planning to soon carry out the first trial of the phase-II of the programme under which we will test our capability to destroy an incoming ballistic missile fired at us from 5,000 km range," said Chander, who took over charge earlier this month.

"Such a capability meets our immediate threat perception," he said when asked if it would cover the threat of such missiles being fired from countries such as China.

Under the phase II of the programme, all the components of such a missile shield including the radar and interceptor missiles would be new and will have extended ranges, the DRDO chief said.

"The phase II missiles would be totally different from phase-I. In this programme, you need to travel more and intercept further away," Chander said.

While giving details of the programme, he said the phase-I of the shield is ready for deployment.

The Hindu - PRISM and India

The simplistic assessment of the crisis being only about a repressive regime needs to change

Under way for over two years, the Syrian civil war has already claimed close to 80,000 lives. In and of itself, this should have been sufficient to stir the conscience of the international community to redouble efforts to persuade the Assad regime and an assortment of rebels armed to the teeth, to walk back from the violence and commence a Syrian-led negotiating process for an acceptable outcome. Unfortunately, maximalist positions of the two sides — President Assad’s exit demanded by the West, Turkey and the Gulf states, and treating the crisis as a security issue by the Assad regime — has prevented any serious attempt at reconciliation.

Geneva 2

Despite agreement between the United States and Russia to convene Geneva 2, some time in the second half of June, the facts on the ground clearly suggest that the initiative is unlikely to succeed. In fact, the actions of the international community’s major stakeholders are continuing to exacerbate the crisis. The simplistic fig leaf that this was a brutal and repressive regime targeting innocent and helpless civilians, demanding their democratic rights as part of the Arab Spring, needs to be shed in favour of more clinical assessments.

Drawing inspiration from the three easy steps for regime change in Libya — a Security Council Resolution, arming of rebels and NATO military action, the rebels, who were armed quite openly by Qatar and covertly by Saudi Arabia and clandestinely by others — the West and Gulf states expected the same in Syria. Given the Libyan experience and strategic interests of Russia, however, the Security Council failed to oblige. Russia and China vetoed three draft resolutions in 2011-12. Unilateral military action by NATO or Coalition of the Willing did not materialise either.

More important still, there are increasing doubts on whether arming the rebels was such a good idea given the proliferation of extremists groups, one of which, the Al-Nusra Front, had to be banned by the U.S. How does one ensure that arms go only to the good rebels? Even the description of “good” is subjective. Turkey and Qatar, it would appear, have no hesitation in supporting rebels drawing inspiration from the Islamic Brotherhood; Saudi Arabia favours Salafist groups. Hopefully, they all agree that al-Qaeda does not qualify for assistance.

With sectarian fault lines within Syria now opened threadbare, the possibility of the present compact that has ruled Syria comprising 12 per cent Alawites, 10 per cent Christians and some Sunni business class continuing to exercise power in any post-Assad dispensation, is a non-starter. Given the brutality of the violence on both sides, the prevailing sentiment among the Sunnis backed by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia and sections of the political class in the West not fully educated in the sectarian tensions of the region, is to “send the Alawites to their graves and the Christians to Lebanon.” Clearly, no post-Assad dispensation in Syria will be viable unless effective security guarantees can be provided for the safety of nearly 20 per cent of the population. Who will provide these?

The “top down” model for a negotiated settlement on which Geneva 1 was based last year and on which Geneva 2, if it has to have better luck than Geneva 1, has to be predicated on all parties to the conflict agreeing to participate. That is the easiest part. Agreement can also perhaps be reached that both Saudi Arabia and Iran, given their stake in the civil war, should be invited. Now comes the more difficult part.

Militias

The just concluded battle for Qusayr shows that this is now a full-fledged war in which the Lebanon-based Shiite group, Hezbollah, is openly and fully involved. Any residual doubts were removed when the Hezbollah leader, Nasrullah, explicitly so announced on May 25.

With 12,000 Hezbollah fighters now reportedly fighting along with Assad’s troops and paramilitary militias drawn from his Alawite sect against an assortment of rebels, mostly Sunnis with varying degrees of radicalisation, a negotiated settlement would appear less likely than at any time in the last two years.

For Hezbollah, established to fight Israel, this is clearly a gamble. Apart from fighting the Syrian rebels, they will have to confront pan-Arab sentiment. In the process, tensions between the Shia crescent from Iran, covering Iraq, Syria and the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Gulf states and their western backers can only increase. A desire to weaken the Iran-dominated crescent cannot but open the sectarian fault lines throughout the region.

Hezbollah’s more direct involvement, rather the timing of the announcement coincides with Russia’s decision to supply the Assad regime with more sophisticated weaponries. The Russian decision constitutes, in a sense, an insurance just in case the U.S. is persuaded by the British and the French to consider the imposition of a no-fly zone and aerial action. Israeli strikes in Syria, in turn, want to prevent the sophisticated weapons falling in to the hands of Hezbollah for use against Israel.

The European Union announced on May 27 that it has decided not to renew the embargo on supply of lethal arms to the Syrian rebels.

Internal divisions

The humanitarian tragedy unfolding for Syria’s 22 million people, with close to four million internally displaced and the increasing brutality of the sectarian violence would appear to point towards a prolongation of the civil war. Even the fall of President Assad’s regime is now unlikely to restore peace and security in Syria. Sectarian war will not only continue, but result in the country’s de facto division into three largely autonomous regions dominated by the Alawites, Kurds and Sunnis, the internal boundaries of which will be determined by the prevailing military balance on the ground.

The assessment that while Libya imploded, Syria will explode with unimaginable consequences will prove to be right. The unfolding scenario constitutes the biggest threat to international peace and security in recent times. The continuing paralysis and helplessness of the Security Council constitutes, in a sense, also the most comprehensive statement of its irrelevance.